# 中恒电气（002364）· 每轮收益对照（ETF版 vs 个股版）
> 12 轮信号逐轮并排 · 出场与累计 · 截至 2026-10-16
> 发布：https://qpyjs.com/zhongheng_rounds_20261016.html

每一轮 = 一次信号事件。两版同日触发的直接并列；个股版早触发的那几轮按"同一轮"配对。

## 轮次对照（每轮并排）

| 轮次 | 版本 | 日期 | 入场 | 5日 | 10日 | 20日 | 40日 | 出场(持有) | 累计 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | ETF版 | 2014-12-22 | 7.48 | +8.6% | +6.9% | +23.5% | +72.7% | +16.30%(13天) | +16.3% |
| 1 | 个股版 | 未触发 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | ETF版 | 2015-07-06 | 19.06 | +18.2% | +18.6% | +19.9% | -14.5% | +19.67%(20天) | +39.2% |
| 2 | 个股版 | 2015-07-03 | 20.87 | -1.9% | +20.4% | +4.2% | -26.8% | +9.34%(21天) | +9.3% |
| 3 | ETF版 | 2016-01-13 | 17.09 | +18.3% | -4.0% | +12.6% | +4.1% | +10.81%(19天) | +54.2% |
| 3 | 个股版 | 2016-01-11 | 18.2 | +4.6% | +2.8% | +0.5% | -4.0% | +4.06%(21天) | +13.8% |
| 4 | ETF版 | 2017-05-23 | 12.09 | -0.1% | +1.2% | +2.5% | -5.2% | +6.86%(18天) | +64.8% |
| 4 | 个股版 | 2017-05-23 | 12.09 | -0.1% | +1.2% | +2.5% | -5.2% | +6.86%(18天) | +21.6% |
| 5 | ETF版 | 2018-02-01 | 7.84 | -8.6% | -1.1% | +7.7% | +24.5% | +12.72%(15天) | +85.8% |
| 5 | 个股版 | 2018-02-01 | 7.84 | -8.6% | -1.1% | +7.7% | +24.5% | +12.72%(15天) | +37.1% |
| 6 | ETF版 | 2019-01-29 | 8.48 | +5.0% | +6.7% | +28.9% | +31.5% | +23.64%(14天) | +129.7% |
| 6 | 个股版 | 2019-01-29 | 8.48 | +5.0% | +6.7% | +28.9% | +31.5% | +23.64%(14天) | +69.4% |
| 7 | ETF版 | 2020-08-24 | 10.57 | -0.9% | -2.8% | -1.5% | -2.0% | -2.54%(20天) | +123.8% |
| 7 | 个股版 | 2020-08-24 | 10.57 | -0.9% | -2.8% | -1.5% | -2.0% | -2.54%(20天) | +65.1% |
| 8 | ETF版 | 2022-04-11 | 7.37 | -5.3% | -18.9% | -12.5% | -3.0% | -9.72%(25天) | +102.1% |
| 8 | 个股版 | 2022-04-11 | 7.37 | -5.3% | -18.9% | -12.5% | -3.0% | -9.72%(25天) | +49.1% |
| 9 | ETF版 | 2022-04-13 | 7.19 | -3.2% | -14.2% | -9.4% | -0.8% | -7.41%(23天) | +87.1% |
| 9 | 个股版 | 2022-04-13 | 7.19 | -3.2% | -14.2% | -9.4% | -0.8% | -7.41%(23天) | +38.0% |
| 10 | ETF版 | 2022-04-25 | 6.01 | +4.0% | +7.4% | +13.2% | +29.7% | +10.81%(15天) | +107.3% |
| 10 | 个股版 | 2022-04-25 | 6.01 | +4.0% | +7.4% | +13.2% | +29.7% | +10.81%(15天) | +53.0% |
| 11 | ETF版 | 2024-02-01 | 5.79 | -19.5% | -2.0% | +1.5% | +5.3% | -1.02%(11天) | +105.2% |
| 11 | 个股版 | 2024-01-31 | 5.86 | -27.6% | -8.7% | -2.4% | -0.2% | -2.35%(12天) | +49.4% |
| 12 | ETF版 | 2026-10-15 | 27.86 | — | — | — | — | 进行中 | — |
| 12 | 个股版 | 2026-10-15 | 27.86 | — | — | — | — | 进行中 | — |

- 累计列 = 该版本自身序列按出场收益滚动复利（ETF版 11 轮 → +105%；个股版 10 轮 → +49%），未计成本

## 每轮 20 日收益差（ETF版 − 个股版）

| 轮次 | 时间 | ETF版 20日 | 个股版 20日 | 差 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | 2014-12-22 | +23.5% | — | 仅ETF版 |
| 2 | 2015-07-03 / 2015-07-06 | +19.9% | +4.2% | ETF优 +15.66pp |
| 3 | 2016-01-11 / 2016-01-13 | +12.6% | +0.5% | ETF优 +12.13pp |
| 4 | 2017-05-23 | +2.5% | +2.5% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 5 | 2018-02-01 | +7.7% | +7.7% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 6 | 2019-01-29 | +28.9% | +28.9% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 7 | 2020-08-24 | -1.5% | -1.5% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 8 | 2022-04-11 | -12.5% | -12.5% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 9 | 2022-04-13 | -9.4% | -9.4% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 10 | 2022-04-25 | +13.2% | +13.2% | 持平 +0.00pp |
| 11 | 2024-01-31 / 2024-02-01 | +1.5% | -2.4% | ETF优 +3.88pp |
| 12 | 2026-10-15 | — | — | 进行中 |

## 关键读数

- **同日同价的 8 轮**里两版收益完全相同（数字一致）——差异只来自双方「独有」或「错位」的 4 轮
- **错位 3 轮全部 ETF版占优**：2015-07（+19.9% vs +4.3%）、2016-01（+12.6% vs +0.5%）、2024-02（+1.5% vs −2.4%）
- **独有 2 轮**：ETF版独家 2014-12-22 大幅盈利（20日 +23.5%）；个股版独家 3 轮全部偏弱（本轮表内已并入对应轮次）
- 两版都在 2022-04 连吃两轮亏损（04-11 / 04-13：−12.5% / −9.4%，两版数字相同）——这是共同的失败模式，不是版本差异

## 口径

- 轮次配对规则：两版同日触发=同轮；一版早触发且间隔≤10天的互补信号按同一轮配对（3 处）
- 「出场」= 收盘 WZ20≥60 次日开盘卖出（ETF版规则，两版同口径）；「进行中」= 2026-10-15 本轮尚无结果
- 复算：`python3 /root/ths_analysis/zhongheng_compare.py`；原始数据 zhongheng_compare.json